As the China versus USA battle for world supremacy continues to hot up, it’s worth considering how demographics may impact the battle, writes Dr Abul Rizvi.
From around 1970 to 2015, the working-age population in China grew by an extraordinary 559 million (Chart 1). Over the next 80 years, it is projected to fall by 442 million, possibly more if its fertility rate does not steadily recover to 1.75 births per woman as assumed in the U.N. Population Division’s 2019 projections.
The most significant part of the increase in the working-age population in China was in the economically critical 35-49 year age group. The growth of this group more than doubled from around 143 million in 1980 to 351 million in 2010. It is projected to halve to 175 million by 2010.
From 1970 to 2010, China’s GDP growth…